周期视角下半导体行业股价指数波动

半导体股价指数受行业周期影响呈现周期规律，运用向量自回归模型，从宏观和行业层面出发，结合半导体周期和硅周期进行分析。实证研究表明，行业周期和股价指数周期之间存在相关性，半导体行业周期波动是半导体股价指数周期波动的核心影响因素，股价指数周期先于行业周期2～6个月，证实股票市场发挥宏观经济晴雨表功能。从行业周期视角分析股价指数波动的内在规律，对优化投资者的投资策略具有一定的参考价值。

Semiconductor Industry Stock Price Index Fluctuation from the Perspective of Cycle

Semiconductor stock price index shows periodic rule under the influence of industry cycle. Vector autoregressive model was used to analyze the semiconductor cycle and silicon cycle from macro and industry level. The empirical research shows that there is a correlation between the industry cycle and the stock price index cycle. The semiconductor industry cycle is the core influencing factor of the semiconductor stock price index cycle, and the stock price index cycle precedes the industry cycle by 2 to 6 months, which confirms that the stock market plays the function of macroeconomic barometer. Analyzing the internal law of stock price index fluctuation from the perspective of industry cycle has certain reference value for optimizing investors'' investment strategy.