通货膨胀预期对居民基本养老保险的影响测算

我国基本养老保险的个人账户部分根据政策规定,每年参考银行同期存款利率计息。但由于我国的存款利率长期以来低于通货膨胀率水平,再考虑到养老金负债的长期性,这使得我国养老基金面临较大的通胀风险。本文建立了个人账户通胀风险的精算模型,并对记账利率和通货膨胀率进行估计来分析个人账户的通胀风险。本文的结论是,在当前制度下,我国养老保险个人账户部分存在较大的通胀风险,但随着通胀率的上升,通胀风险的增度会下降。

A Study on the Inflation Risk of Individual Accounts of the Social Security Fund

According to the regulation rules,the accumulation rate of individual accounts of the social pension fund in China is linked with the one-year deposit rate.However,due to the situation that the one-year deposit rate is usually lower than the inflation rate,and coupled with the long-tail nature of pension liabilities,the social pension fund faces with a significant inflation risk in China.We established an actuarial model on the individual account to calculate the inflation risk through two time series models of inflation rates and deposit rates.We concluded that under the current regulation rules,individual accounts of social pension were facing with very high inflation risks,but the magnitude of inflation risk increase would slow down as the inflation rate increased.