后危机时代中国与 欧美财政政策协调研究

本文通过达瓦斯两国财政离散度的测算和MSVAR模型对中美、中欧财政政策协调进行定量分析。结果表明，中欧的财政政策相关程度比中美要高，这主要是由于中国地方财政分权模式与欧元区相似，以及美元霸权地位的“资本双向流动模式”所决定。债务危机后需要各经济体进行统一协调的财政方案，否则一个开放经济体政策的作用效果会被抵消。目前中国在国际政策协调中仍处于从属地位，未来美国的财政赤字将大幅下降，同时欧元区的赤字也将波动下降，中国要加快做好经济结构调整。

ANALYSIS ON CHINESE INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION OF FISCAL POLICY WITH EU & US AFTER THE CRISIS

This paper measures fiscal divergence of two countries by following Darvas in 2005 and applies MSVAR model to test policy cooperation of Sino US and Sino EUEmpirical results show that the positive relevance of fiscal policy of Sino EU is higher than that of Sino USSince China is similar to EU who has fiscal decentralization between center and regions and the hegemony of US dollarAfter the debt crisis, each country requires to cooperate fiscal policyOtherwise, the effect of austerity policy will be offsetChina is in the following position in the international policy cooperationIn the future, US and EU will reduce deficit so that China has to prepare for the economic adjustment