国际食物消费启示与中国食物缺口分析：基于历史数据

通过梳理美国、欧盟、日本、韩国和中国台湾的食物消费统计资料，本文发现食物消费存在四大特点，分别是在经济水平发达之前食品消费严重依赖本国（地区）农业自然资源禀赋、食物消费饱和状态广泛存在、班尼特法则和在外饮食常态化。另外，当人均GDP进入15 000美元～20 000美元区间后，食物消费趋于稳定或缓慢增长，粮食和肉类人均消费（包含水产品）均趋近于“双百”状态：口粮消费约100千克，肉类和水产品加总约100千克。通过考察中国内地的食物消费现状，本文发现2020年后中国内地的食物消费将趋于稳定或进入缓慢增长阶段，在肉类、植物油和食糖消费上还存在较大缺口。

INTERNATIONAL FOOD CONSUMPTION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON CHINAS FOOD GAP: EVIDENCE FROM HISTORICAL DATA

Based on the historical data from USA,EU,Japan,Korea,and Chinese Taiwan,this paper summarized four key features of food consumption: the natural resource endowment,stable food consumption,Bennetts law and popular food away from homeFood consumption reached to the level of two hundreds: 100kg food grain and 100kg meat plus aquatic products after per capita GDP in the range of 15 000~20 000 US DollarThis paper also reported that the domestic demand of food consumption would become stable or increase at a rate of slow growth,and there would be a big food gap on meat,edible oil,and sugar consumption after 2020 in China