基于面板数据的湖南省财政增收与经济增长协整分析

本文通过选取湖南1994~2010年财政收入的面板数据,运用面板数据的单位根检验与协整检验,对湖南财政增收与GDP的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明湖南财政增收与GDP之间存在双向长期协整关系,即GDP是财政收入增收的源泉,财政增收增加了财政支出,反过来刺激经济增长。并且,产业结构高级化的城市财政收入对GDP的弹性大于1,即GDP的增长能带来更大幅度的财政增收。因此,需进一步加速推进新型工业化,促进产业结构优化升级,实现湖南财政增收与GDP的长期良性互动。

Co-integration analysis on Hunan Provincial Finance Income and Economic Growth based on the Panel Data

The paper makes a positive analysis of the relation between Hunan financial income and GDP based on the finance income panel data from 1994 to 2010 through panel data unit root test and co-integration test. The results show that the Hunan financial income and GDP have a long-term two-way co-integration relation, namely GDP is the source of financial income that increase the fiscal expenditure, and which in turn stimulates economic growth. And, the elasticity of the revenue of high-leveled industrial structure agianst GDP is greater than 1, that is, GDP growth can lead to more substantial financial income. Therefore, we need to further advance the new-style industrialization, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and achieve the healthy development between Hunan financial income＇ increase and the GDP＇s growth.