“互联网＋”、普惠金融与经济增长-基于面板数据的PVAR模型实证检验

运用多元测算方法和主成分分析法获取我国31个地区2008-2014年“互联网+”、普惠金融和经济增长相关变量数据,借助面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)研究三类变量间的动态关系,实证研究发现:“互联网+”和普惠金融对经济增长的影响程度相当,经济增长对“互联网+”的影响较大,而对普惠金融影响相对较小.微观上看,三者之间正向作用已经存在,普惠金融对城镇化率和贸易开放度驱动的经济增长具有正向促进作用,“互联网+”对普惠金融发展、城镇化率和贸易开放度驱动的经济增长也具有正向促进作用,因此,需要各经济主体加强基础性投入、注重精准化投入并做到长期坚持以促进三者协同发展.但从长期看,普惠金融对“互联网+”和经济增长率和居民消费价格指数驱动的经济增长存在负面冲击,“互联网+”对经济增长率和居民消费价格指数驱动的经济增长也具有微弱的负面冲击,因此,需要政府层面加强统一监管并积极理顺三者之间的关系,以消除其中的摩擦因素.

"Internet +", Inclusive Finance and Economic Growth--Empirical test of PVAR model based on Panel Data

The paper use multiple calculation method and principal component analysis to obtain the "Internet plus", inclusive financial and economic growth related variables of 31 regions in China during 2008-2014, using panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR). The study found that the dynamic relationship between innovative research of three kinds of variables between the empirical: "Internet plus" and inclusive financial impact on economic growth, the economic growth effect of the "Internet plus" large and relatively small impact on financial inclusion; between the microscopic point of view the three positive effect already exists, the urbanization rate of Inclusive Finance and the opening degree of trade driven economic growth, "Internet plus" of inclusive financial development and urbanization rate and the opening degree of trade driven economic growth has a positive role So, the need to consider the various economic entities from a strong foundation, precision investment and long-term adherence to consider three collaborative development; but from the long-term development considerations, there are still some negative friction, inclusive finance "Internet plus" and the economic growth rate and consumer price index driven economic growth, Internet plus for the economy the growth rate and consumer price index driven economic growth also has a negative impact on the weak situation, need the government to strengthen the unified supervision and actively improve the lubrication and eliminate friction factors among them.