我国粮食市场风险的度量与评估  ———基于风险价值法的实证分析

该文利用风险价值法,以我国小麦、玉米、粳稻、早籼稻、晚籼稻、大豆的市场价格为研究对象,度量了我国粮食市场的风险大小,评估了我国粮食市场风险的发生程度。结果表明:我国粮食市场是一个风险发生频率较高的市场,并且还是一个高风险市场;不同品种粮食市场风险的发生大小有所不同,其中大豆的市场风险值最大,其次为玉米、粳稻、早籼稻、晚籼稻,小麦的市场风险值最小;粮食市场价格下跌风险与市场价格上涨风险的发生频率基本相当,两者同等重要,在重点关注粮食价格上涨风险的同时,更应重视粮食价格下跌所产生的风险。

QUANTIFYING AND ASSESSMENT OF THE GRAIN MARKET RISK IN CHINA

Taking the market price of wheat,corn,japonica rice,early indica rice,late indica rice,soybean in China as the research object,this paper quantified the grain price fluctuation risk and assessed the occurrence level using the method of value at risk.The results showed that China’s grain market risk happened with high frequency and high level which was different from varieties of grain.The price of soybean showed the highest market risk,followed by corn,japonica rice,early indica rice,late indica rice,and wheat.The frequency of the risk induced by price dropping was almost the same as that by price rise,and they both are very important.It suggested that it needed to pay more attention to the risk induced by the grain price down when caring about the risk by the price rise