A perspective on subjective probability for prediction and decision |
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Authors: | Derek W Bunn |
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Institution: | Department of Decision Science at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, U.S.A. |
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Abstract: | The problem of assigning a meaningful subjective probability measure on a set of predictive models (inductive hypothesis) is considered. An outperformance construct is suggested as a means of reducing this to the more tractable task of assessing the distribution on a set of realizable events. Further issues on the precise interpretation of subjective probability estimation from the perspective of the decision-oriented forecaster are then considered. |
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