经济转型中的企业退出机制——关于北京市中关村科技园区的一项经验研究

本文运用来自北京市中关村科技园区的一套独特数据 ,从企业退出这个角度探讨决定中关村高科技企业成长的相关因素 ,尤其是企业的效率因素、企业负债和所有制性质 (或行政隶属关系 )对退出的影响。本文的基本发现是 ,效率高低日益成为决定中关村高科技企业生存的重要因素 ,这表明经过二十多年的经济改革开放 ,市场力量的重要性已日渐上升。另一方面 ,企业负债也成为制约企业生存与成长的重要因素。但是 ,企业净资产负债率对不同所有制企业的退出的影响也不尽相同 ,国有企业总体上不受其影响 ,而且行政隶属关系越高 ,所受影响也就越小 ;但净资产负债率对非国有企业则形成显著的压力。这说明传统计划体制下的预算软约束问题仍然没有消失。我们的研究还表明 ,随着时间的推移 ,行政隶属关系和所有制性质本身对企业生存提供的保护作用正在递减。

The Mechanism of Firm Exit in Economic Transition:An Empirical Analysis for Zhongguancun Science Park of Beijing

Using a unique dataset from Zhongguancun Science Park of Beijing, this paper explores the determinants of high-tech firm survival, especially the effects of firm efficiency, net-debt ratio, and ownership on the hazard rate of exit. Our main finding is that firm efficiency has increasingly become the primary factor in affecting the chance of survival in the Zhongguancun Science Park, indicating the growing significance of market forces as a result of China's economic reforms since late 1970s. However, as a legacy of the planning economy, the “soft budget constraint" syndrome still remains: while net-debt ratio positively and significantly affects the hazard rate of exit for non-state-owned firms, its overall effect on the government-owned firms is not significant, and decreases with the level of the government to which the firms are affiliated. We also find a declining role of state ownership in protecting the survival of firms over the sample period.