基于贸易视角的人民币区域化研究

本文综述了人民币区域化的相关研究,从宏观经济的角度分析了人民币区域化的区域经济环境。并采用最优货币区标准内生性的模型,选取1989—2003年的数据,验证了中国同亚洲其他经济体双边贸易关联度与经济相关程度之间的关系。此外,本文从贸易的角度对人民币“区域化”的收益以及相应的效应做了实证分析,通过对中国与亚洲其他经济体的贸易情况,以及中国经济发展对亚洲经济体贸易流量和贸易结构等方面的影响,来判断在亚洲贸易发展的趋势下人民币“区域化”的可行性。

RMB REGIONALIZATION: A TRADE PERSPECTIVE

This paper investigates the problems surrounding RMB regionalization from the point of view of trade. A quantitative analysis is conducted to explore the regional economic environment for RMB regionalization. An empirical methodology of OCA is used to test the correlations of bilateral trade intensity and business cycle between China and other Asian economies using 15-year data. We have also conducted a comprehensive analysis on the impacts of China?s economic growth on the trade flows and trade patterns in...