新兴产业与传统产业互动发展的区域差异与变动趋势--基于灰色关联模型的实证研究

基于灰色关联模型设计用于评价产业互动发展状况的产业关联协调指标体系，测度并比较中国东、中、西部地区新兴产业与传统产业互动发展状况及其影响因素的区域差异与变动趋势。研究表明，三大区域传统产业对新兴产业发展的主要胁迫因素均体现为传统产业的工业总产值和R＆amp;D经费内部支出；但新兴产业对传统产业发展的主要胁迫因素存在地区差异，东部为新兴产业利润总额和工业总产值，中部为企业数量和利润总额，西部为R＆amp;D经费内部支出和工业总产值。总的来看，尽管两类产业互动发展的关联度都在中等以上水平，但整体协调度均不高，且区域间存在明显差异，呈现中部高、东西部低的空间分布特征，三大区域新兴产业与传统产业间均未形成显著的良性互动。同时，不同区域协调度也存在较大的时空演化差异。

Regional Differences and Change Trend of Interactive Development between New Industry and Traditional Industry-Empirical Study Based on Gray Relational Model

Industry association coordination index system to evaluate development state of industry inter-action was made and the coordination state of interactive development between new industry and traditional in-dustry of eastern,central and western regions in China and its influencing factors regional differences and change trend were measured and compared based on the gray relational method. Results reveal that the major stress factors of the development for new industry exerts on traditional industry are the same in the three re-gions,which are gross industrial output value of traditional industry and its R＆amp;D interior expenditure,but the major stress factors of the development for traditional industry exerts on new industry are different among differ-ent regions,the eastern appears as the total profit of new industry and its gross industrial output value,the central assumes the number of new industry enterprises and its total profit,and the western assumes R＆amp;D inte-rior expenditure of new industry and its gross industrial output value. Overall,the interaction between new in-dustry and traditional industry in the three regions is not significant,although the correlation degree between new industry and traditional industry are much stronger,while the integral coordination degree is not so high, and exists obvious regional differences,which presents a spatial distribution of higher in central and lower in eastern and western. Meanwhile,there are large spatio-temporal evolution differences of coordination degree among different regions.