农村劳动力流动、产业结构调整与经济增长--基于1993-2012年省际面板数据的实证研究

利用1993-2012年省级面板数据，运用动态差分和系统GMM估计方法对农村剩余劳动力流动、产业结构调整对经济增长的影响进行实证分析，得出结论：（1）各地区合理调整三次产业中农村劳动力比例，有利于三次产业增长；（2）产业结构合理化与高级化对地区三次产业的发展呈现差异性影响；（3）城乡收入差距和城镇化水平对三次产业经济增长的影响存在差异。因此，各地区应结合实际合理调整产业结构，恰当处理产业结构合理化与高级化的关系；加快推进户籍制度改革，进一步转移农村剩余劳动力，合理调整三次产业中农村就业人员的比例，以配合产业结构的战略性调整，实现经济的可持续增长。

On the Effects of Rural Labor Mobility and Industrial Structure on Economic Growth:An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data during 1993-2012

In this paper,we used dynamic panel data and difference and system GMM estimation meth-ods to study the relationship between the flow of rural surplus labor and the adjustment of industrial structure on economic growth. It found that the reasonable adjustment of the proportion of the rural labor force in three industries,is conducive to the rational growth of three industries,the rationalization and optimization of indus-trial structure,and disparities in urban and rural income and level of urbanization present a different effect on regional development. Based on the results,we believe that,according to specific condition,the governments should adjust industrial structure rationally and manage the relationship of rationalization and optimization of in-dustrial structure properly,and further,in order to achieve the sustainable development of economy,more ef-forts have to be made on the reform of registration system,the mobility of rural surplus labor force,and the reasonable adjustment of rural labor force in three industrial proportion.