逆周期的贸易政策与福利分配

2008年金融危机以来,全球逆周期的贸易政策盛行。为了探究逆周期贸易政策对双方福利分配的影响,本文在巴格维尔和斯泰格解释发达经济体之间逆周期贸易政策最优选择模型的基础上,构建了一个2×2×2模型,假定两国商品的需求价格弹性不同,首次在理论上证明了发达国家(如美国)和发展中国家(如中国)之间的逆周期贸易政策取向和福利分配,并依据经验数据证实了自由贸易政策对中美双方来说都是帕累托改进,但中国的福利增进水平低于美国的福利增进水平;而在逆周期贸易政策下,美国和中国通过贸易获得的福利增进水平之差进一步扩大。

COUNTERCYCLICAL TRADE POLICY AND WELFARE ALLOCATION

Since the financial crisis broke out in 2008,global countercyclical trade policies have been in vogue.Based on Bagwell and Staiger's work and assumed the elasticity of demand price in two countries to be different,this paper constructed a new model and theoretically showed the welfare allocation between the developed counties(for example the United State) and the developing nations(for example China).Based on the empirical data,this paper found that the free trade policy was Pareto improvement both to China and U.S.,but the improved level of China's welfare was lower than U.S..Under the countercyclical trade policy,the welfare gap between U.S.and China was supposed to expand in future.