人民币升值及我国的应对措施

人民币升值已经是我国无法回避的问题。总体来看,在现阶段对于我国宏观经济均衡目标而言,人民币升值比不升值对我国经济更有利。但人民币升值的速度取决于我国企业对人民币升值的承受能力、我国扩大内需的能力、我国政府掌控人民币汇率的能力以及热钱流入的速度和资产价格泡沫的大小等。其中,扩大内需是最根本的决定因素。本文提出了在短期内扩大内需以应对人民币升值的两个主要措施,即放松计划生育政策和进行大规模生态开发。

APPRECIATION OF CHINESE YUAN AND CHINA'S POLICIES

The appreciation of Chinese Yuan is a problem which China cannot avoid.From an overall perspective,we thought that the appreciation of Yuan would be better for China's economy.But the speed of the appreciation of Yuan should be determined by the ability of Chinese exporting firms to bear the increasing costs,the ability of China to expand domestic demand,the ability of China in adjusting the exchange rate of Yuan,the inflow speed of hot money,and the magnitude of bubbles in China's asset prices.Among all of the determinants,the expansion of domestic demand is the most fundamental one.We proposed two policies to expand domestic demand,e.g.loosening the birth-control policy and proceeding with the large-scale ecological development.