Antecedents of war: the geopolitics of low oil prices and decelerating financial liquidity |
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| Authors: | Hany Abdel-Latif Mahmoud El-Gamal |
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| Institution: | 1. Economics Department, Swansea University, Swansea, UK;2. Rice University, Houston, USA |
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| Abstract: | We investigate the joint dynamics of oil prices, financial liquidity and geopolitical risk, within a multi-country global vector autoregressive model. We find that low oil prices are expected to trigger higher levels of geopolitical risk and that decelerating financial liquidity serves as an accelerator. |
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| Keywords: | Geopolitics global liquidity oil prices global VAR |
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