Terrorism and tourism demand: a case study of Lebanon,Turkey and Israel |
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| Authors: | Charbel Bassil Sajid Anwar |
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| Institution: | 1. Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Notre Dame University- Louaize, Zouk Mosbeh, Lebanon;2. School of Business, University of Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, QLD 4556, Australia;3. School of Commerce, University of South Australia, Adelaide SA 5001, Australia;4. School of International Economics and Trade, Shanghai Lixin University of Accounting and Finance, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China |
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| Abstract: | Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model, this paper examines the impact of domestic and transnational terrorism on tourism demand (as measured by visitor arrivals) to Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. The distinguishing feature of this paper is that we use a dynamic framework that takes into account (i) the intensity of terrorism and (ii) the associated spillover effects. The empirical results, based on monthly data from 1995 to 2007, reveal that terrorism in one country affects visitor arrivals not only to that country but also to other countries. We find that tourists view Lebanese and Turkish tourism markets as substitutes. Terrorism in Israel, of all types (i.e. domestic or transnational) and intensities, affects visitor arrivals to Lebanon and Turkey. In overall terms, terrorism has a much larger negative impact on visitor arrivals to Lebanon. |
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| Keywords: | transnational and domestic terrorism tourism visitor arrivals spillover effect seemingly unrelated regression |
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