Congestion affecting the dynamic of tourism demand: evidence from the most popular destinations in Spain

In this study, we propose a dynamic econometric model for tourism demand which takes into account the implications of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory on tourism demand. Unlike other dynamic models, in our specification the effect of the lagged demand on the current tourism demand is not constant, but dependent on congestion. We estimate the model using disaggregated data from the most visited Spanish municipalities for the period 2006–2015. Two panel data estimations are carried out: one with the coastal tourist resorts and the other one with the inland municipalities. The results show that tourism congestion reduces the positive previous tourist effect on current arrivals, suggesting that increasing congestion could worsen the attraction of a tourist destination. Congestion is more negatively perceived in inland destinations than coastal ones. Finally, a strong persistence in tourism demand for coastal destinations is shown.