技术预见南方国家视野的困境

随着国家创新实力的增强，中国正在从南方国家向创新型国家演进，处境与当年日本相似。南方国家在开展技术预见时面临知识创新能力相对较弱和知识资产不足等困境，信息不对称可能导致技术预见失去效用。根据信息不对称理论，南方国家在掌握信息内容和时间方面与北方国家存在很大差异。掌握信息比较充分的北方国家处于相对有利地位，而信息比较贫乏的南方国家则处于不利地位，若盲目照搬北方国家的技术预见理论和实践，则可能落入南方国家的视野陷阱。中国创新全球效应日益突出，应在全球创新视野下开展技术预见，排除技术民族主义等干扰。

The Dilemma of the Southern Nations Vision in Technology Foresight

With the rapid development of its innovation capability, China is gradually transforming from one of the Southern Nations to an innovation-led country, which is similar to Japan's previous path. The Southern Nations are faced with challenges for technology foresight due to their weak innovation capability and lack of knowledge accumulation, which may compromise the results of technology foresight. According to the theory of information asymmetry, there is a great of gap between the Northern and the Southern Nations in terms of information acquired. Generally, developed countries with more information (the North) are in a more favorable position; on the contrary, developing countries (the South) are at a comparative disadvantage. Therefore, if the South blindly copy the theory and practice of technology foresight from the North, they may fall into the trap of the Southern Nations' vision. With increasing impact globally, China is playing a very important role on innovation. In order to avoid the Southern Nations Vision dilemma, technology foresight should be carried out in the context of global innovation, and stay away from interference such as technological nationalism.