中国开放经济空心化倾向

本文就人民币汇率变化对我国开放经济空心化传导机制进行理论分析，并以高开放地区和行业作为代表及研究对象，用面板模型进行实证研究，结果表明：过去10年人民币升值通过引发贸易和成本型FDI增长下降、房地产价格上升使开放经济出现一定空心化现象，而近期人民币贬值趋势或将使空心化得到缓解。空心化现象是我国出口导向增长模式的必然产物，为控制空心化的蔓延并实现经济健康发展，唯有转变增长模式、实现产业结构升级。

Hollowing-out Tendency of Chinese Open Economy from the

This paper theoretically analyzes the transmission mechanism of Hollowing-out phenomenon of Chinese open economy,and then empirically analyzes the panel data,regarding highly-Open region and highly-Open industry as the representatives of open economy and as research objects.The results show RMB appreciation will lead highly-Open regions and highly-Open industries to stick in Hollowing phenomenon,by causing decrease in external trade growth and FDI growth,but increase in real estate prices.On the contrary,the RMB exchange rate appears to decline these days,making it possible that Hollowing phenomenon of Chinese open economy will be alleviated.This Hollowing phenomenon is an inevitable product of Chinese economic growth mode,and the only way to alleviate Hollowing phenomenon of Chinese open economy and to achieve stable and healthy development of Chinese economy is to change the economic growth model and to accelerate industrial structure upgrading.