我国外贸出口与实际产出关系的季节单整与协整分析

本文根据Lamfalussy模型运用季节误差修正模型和季节单整与协整方法,利用1984年1季度至2004年4季度未经季节调整数据研究了我国的实际产出和出口之间的关系.实证分析表明:尽管出口对实际产出有显著的促进作用,但强度却不大,出口依存度每提高1%,实际产出增长率仅提高0.078%,其原因是我国季度实际产出和出口之间不存在(零频率上)长期协整关系,只存在π频率上短期季节协整关系.本文结果有助于消除人们对于人民币升值造成出口减少影响经济增长的顾虑.

Seasonal Integration and Cointegration Analysis on the Relationship between Exports and Real Output in China

This paper examines the relationship between exports and real output with quarterly unadjusted data from 1984 to 2004 in China. We employ seasonal error correction modeling, seasonal integration and cointegration to conduct our research based on Lamfalussy model. The results show that exports have insignificant positive effects on output, and that the adjustment to long - run equilibrium relationship is rather slow because of the absence of cointegration at the zero frequency and only the presence of cointegration between exports and output. It is concluded that while exports exert a positive effect on output, the effect is not as strong as normally described to be.