基于平准化电力成本模型的屋顶式并网光伏经济性实证研究

基于平准化电力成本(LCOE)计量模型,以屋顶式并网光伏为研究对象,综合考虑光伏发电的经济成本、环境成本,并定量评估了污染物减排的环境成本以及预期可实现的碳排放收益,将其引入LCOE计量模型.通过优化后的LCOE计量模型进行实证研究,得到了在考虑环境因素、碳交易市场条件下的光伏LCOE.进而进行光伏和火电LCOE的对比分析和影响光伏LCOE的敏感性分析,发现在考虑环境因素、碳交易等因素时光伏发电相比火电具有明显优势,且系统单位造价及太阳辐照量对光伏LCOE的影响程度较大.最后提出了降低光伏发电投资成本、利用数字化技术赋能光伏产业和完善碳排放交易市场的政策建议,实现有效提高光伏发电经济性的目的并为在碳中和背景下发展屋顶式光伏提供参考.

Empirical Research on Economy of Roof-mounted PV Power Grid Connected Based on LCOE Model

Based on the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) measurement model, taking rooftop grid-connected photovoltaic as the research object, the economic cost and environmental cost of photovoltaic power generation are comprehensively considered, and the environmental cost of pollutant emission reduction and the expected achievable carbon emission benefits are quantitatively evaluated, which are introduced into the lcoe measurement model. Through the empirical study of the optimized LCOE measurement model, the photovoltaic LCOE under the conditions of considering environmental factors and carbon trading market is obtained. Furthermore, the comparative analysis of photovoltaic and thermal power LCOE and the sensitivity analysis of influencing photovoltaic LCOE show that photovoltaic power generation has obvious advantages over thermal power when considering environmental factors, carbon trading and other factors, and the unit cost of the system and the amount of solar radiation have a greater impact on photovoltaic LCOE. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward to reduce the investment cost of photovoltaic power generation, empower the photovoltaic industry by using digital technology and improve the carbon emission trading market, so as to achieve the purpose of effectively improving the economy of photovoltaic power generation and provide reference for the development of rooftop photovoltaic in the context of carbon neutrality.