山西省旅游业新旧动能转换测度及其影响研究

旅游业新旧动能转换是山西省实现经济高质量发展的重要举措.以山西省旅游业为研究对象,构建传统动能和新动能测量的指标体系,并测算新旧动能转换指数,对山西省旅游业的新旧动能转换特征和规律予以分析.结果表明:山西省旅游业的发展长期依赖传统动能,2008—2018年,传统动能的发展程度显著高于新动能,新旧动能转换指数较低,长期位于0.78,1.04]区间;岭回归实证分析结果显示,新动能对旅游业的发展影响程度大于传统动能,其中最突出的是恩格尔效应和技术进步,影响系数分别为0.201和0.190.为实现山西省旅游业高质量发展,应重视旅游业的恩格尔效应,提升技术进步投入,加强人力资本培育机制的建设,推进旅游业新动能的发展速度和深度.

Study on Measurement of Replacement of Old Economic Drivers in Shanxi Tourism and Its Influence

The replacement of old economic driver is the key to achieve high-quality economic development in Shanxi Province. The index system is constructed to measure the replacement index of old economic driver, and the characteristics and rules of the index in Shanxi tourism is analyzed . The results show that the development of Shanxi tourism has relied on old economic driver chronically. Since 2008, the development of old economic driver has been significantly higher than the new ones. The replacement index of old economic driver has been at low level, which ranges from 0.78 to 1.04 for a long time. The empirical analysis results of ridge regression show that the new economic driver has a greater influence on tourism development than the old one, and the most prominent factors are Engel effect and technological progress, with the influence coefficient of 0.201 and 0.190 respectively. For the high-quality development of Shanxi tourism, we should more pay attention to the Engel effect of tourism, increase investment in technological progress, strengthen the construction of human capital cultivation mechanism, and promote the development speed and depth of new driving forces of tourism.