上市公司连续两年亏损就应该被“ST”吗?

结合公司运营以及赢利的相关理论 ,本文对我国股市的上市公司股票特殊处理 (ST)政策进行了深入分析。本文提出了一个既能够反映公司赢利能力又可以反映赢利波动率的公司盈亏模型。该模型显示亏损以及连续亏损与否 ,并不直接依赖于公司长期的赢利能力 ,而是直接依赖于一个综合了赢利能力以及赢利波动率的盈亏稳定性指标。结合 1 975— 2 0 0 3年美国上市公司数据的实证检验发现 ,大量具有良好赢利能力的公司 ,可以具有较差的盈亏稳定性。基于以上理论以及实证分析 ,本文对我国股市的特殊处理政策在过去、现在以及未来的现实意义阐述了自己的观点。

Should Firms with Two Consecutive Annual Losses be Specially Treated (ST)?

Based on accounting theories and theories of the firm, we study the special treatment policy (ST) on Chinese stock market. We propose a simple econometric model, which can reflect both a firm's earnings-generating ability and the earnings volatility. Based on our model, we find that whether a firm will suffer loss is not directly related to the firm's long-term earning ability. Instead, it is decided by an index, earning stability index, which combines the firm's earnings-generating ability and earning volatility. Based on the data of U.S. stock market from 1975—2003, we find a rather substantial proportion of the U.S. firms with good long-term earnings ability tend to have very low earning stability and a non-trivial probability to suffer consecutive losses. Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, a short discussion is provided for ST policy's past experience, current status, possible future developments.