中国木质家具出口贸易波动成因分析——基于CMS模型的国际比较

以加拿大、德国、意大利、马来西亚和美国5个国家作为对比国,利用1992～2006年的Comtrade数据,通过CMS模型比较分析了影响中国木制家具出口贸易变动的因素。结果表明:⑴影响中国木制家具出口贸易波动的因素主要来自际市场需求因素、出口的产品整体竞争力效应和出口商品结构变化3个方面;⑵中国木质家具国际竞争力处于稳步上升阶段,是6个木制家具出口国中增长最稳定的一个。

Chinese Wood Furniture Exports Fluctuations Analysis——International comparison based on the CMS model

In recent years,Chinese wood furniture exports has increased rapidly and become the world's largest export country of wood furniture in 2005.Based on CMS model,the paper comparatively analyses the changing factors of Chinese wood furniture export trade with selecting Canada,Germany,Italy,Malaysia and the United States as the comparative countries by using comtrade data from1992 to 2006.The results show that the factors of volatility result from three main aspect:the international market demand factor,the export's effect of overall competitiveness and the structural changes in exports.At the same time,international competitiveness of Chinese wood furniture is upward in a steady trend.China is the most stable one in six wood furniture exporting countries.