基于CMS模型的印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长因素分析

报告了印尼对中国园艺产品出口贸易的现状,采用2010-2014年UN COMTRADE数据,应用恒定市场份额模型（CMS模型）的简化形式,即单一市场份额模型分析印尼对中国园艺产品出口额增长的主要影响因素。结果表明印尼园艺产品出口额增长最主要的影响因素是竞争力效应,其次是结构效应,次结构效应的影响最小。从发展优势来看,商品竞争力效应和综合竞争力效应占主要的因素,其次是动态结构效应,最后是产品结构效应和增长效应。为了提高印尼园艺产品的出口额,建议印尼政府能够把出口原料转为出口半成品或最终产品,增加印尼园艺产品的出口附加值。

Analysis of Growth Factors of Indonesian Horticultural Exports to China Based on CMS Model

This paper provides a simplified CMS model form namely single market model to analyzed the influencing factors of Indonesian horticultural export to China between year 2010-2014, data collected from UN COMTRADE. The result showed that the main factor affecting the growth of Indonesian horticultural export to China were the competitive effect, followed by the structural effect and the effect of the second structure. From the second level of the model, the effect of commodity competitiveness and comprehensive competitiveness were the main factor, followed by the dynamic structure of the effect, and finally the product structure and growth effect. In order to increase the value of Indonesian horticultural product to China, it is highly recommended to export semi-finished products or final products instead of raw material form.