房地产上市公司股价影响因素实证分析

近年来,在持续的房地产调控政策影响下,我国商品房市场开始出现成交量大幅下滑,房价逐步松动下滑的现象。但在此期间,房地产上市公司股票价格不仅强于大盘走势,而且其波动幅度也高于房地产销售价格指数。为此,本文选择房地产上市公司股票价格指数为因变量,选择上证综指、发电量增长率、CPI、人民币贷款利率、房地产价格指数五个因素指标为自变量进行多元回归统计建模,模型检验结果表明,房地产上市公司股价波动除具有一般金融资产价格波动的系统性、集聚性等特点外,还具有与人民币贷款利率和房屋销售价格指数负相关的特点。受宏观调控政策的持续影响,中国当前房地产市场出现一定程度的扭曲,实体经济增长对房地产上市公司股价的影响不显著。

Demonstrative analysis of real estate industry listed company share price influencefactors

Recent years,under the influence of the ongoing regulation,the real estate market began a sharp decline in volume and a slight decline in price.But in the meantime,the stock prices of the real estate companies not only beating the market,but its volatility is also higher than the price index of real estate sales.This paper select the stock price index of real estate companies as the dependent variable,while selecting the Shanghai Composite Index,the growth rate of generating capacity,the CPI,the RMB lending rate,the real estate price index as independent variables for multiple regression model.The model test results show that the stock price of the real estate listed companies not only has the systematic and gathering characteristics but also negative with the RMB loan interest rates and housing sales price index.Subject to the continuing impact of macroeconomic policies,China’s current real estate market shows a little distortion that real economic growth had no significant effect on the share prices of listed real estate companies.