黄河中下游水资源多目标利益对古贤水库运行的响应

为量化未来古贤水库参与黄河中下游梯级水库群联合运行对供水、发电、调水调沙、生态多目标关键利益及非关键利益的影响,设置2030水平年有古贤水库及无古贤水库两种情景,基于梯级水库群多目标协同优化调度理论构建黄河中下游梯级水库群多目标协同优化调度模型,通过求解模型分析了径流减少及未来综合需水增加的背景下,黄河中下游多目标利益对古贤水库参与联合运行的响应关系。结果表明:与无古贤水库情景相比,有古贤水库情景下水库群调度系统总协同度略微增加,供水与发电子系统有序度有所增加,农业关键期、非关键期多年平均缺水量减少,水库群多年平均发电量增加；除调沙频率略微下降外,有古贤水库情景下输沙、生态目标关键利益及非关键利益均有所提升。

Response of water resources multi-objective interests in middle-lower Yellow River to Guxian Reservoir operation

In order to quantify the impact of the Guxian Reservoir’s participation in the joint operation of cascade reservoirs on key and non-key multi-objective benefits, including water supply, power generation, water-sediment regulation and ecology, in the middle-lower Yellow River, two scenarios with and without the Guxian Reservoir in 2030 were set. Based on the theory of multi-objective synergetic optimal operation of cascade reservoirs, the multi-objective synergetic optimal operation model by cascade reservoirs in the middle-lower Yellow River was constructed and solved.The response of multi-objective benefits in the middle-lower Yellow River to the joint operation of the Guxian Reservoir under the background of runoff reduction and comprehensive water demand growth in the future was analyzed. The results show that, compared with the scenario without the Guxian Reservoir, the total synergetic degree of the reservoir system with the Guxian Reservoir operation increased slightly, the order degree of subsystems of water supply and power generation increased,the average annual water shortage in the critical period and non-critical period of agriculture decreased,the average annual power generation of cascade reservoirs increased. In addition to a slight decrease in the frequency of water-sediment regulation, the key and non-key benefits of ecology and water-sediment regulation increased in the scenario with the Guxian Reservoir.