要素投入结构变化对中国农业增长影响的实证研究

从生产要素结构变动的角度,分析了1985年与2004年中国各省(市、区)农业生产要素投入比例的变化,然后借助计量经济模型检验了两个时期要素产出弹性的差异。结果显示:随着资源配置市场化的深入,土地与劳动力在农业生产中的投入比例呈下降趋势,而资本的投入比例日益上升。就产出弹性而言,2004年资本要素的产出弹性最大,劳动次之,土地的产出弹性最小。但与1985年相比,各要素的产出弹性变化趋势不同,其中资本与土地的产出弹性呈现幅度不等的下降,而劳动的产出弹性则是上升的。研究同时表明中国农业产出处于规模报酬递增阶段,近期内增加农业的资本投入对农业的增长仍具有重要意义。

An Empirical Research of the Change of Agricultural Production Factors on Chinese Agriculture Growth

Based on the analysis of composition for agricultural production factors,this paper compares the difference between proportions for agricultural production factor input of 29 provinces of China in 1985 and 2004,and then examines the difference of output elasticity for every factor over two periods by econometric models.The results show that with the development of market,the proportion of input for land and labor is decreasing,while that of capital is increasing.As for as the output elasticity is concerned,the highest is that of capital,followed by those of labor and land in turn in 2004.Compared with those of 1985,the output elasticity for capital,land and labor changed differentially,during which the first two declined in different scales,while the last increased.The findings also show that Chinese agriculture is experiencing the period of increasing margin for factor inputs,and it is of great importance to increase the input of capital in the near future.