| 基于多因素分析的区域物流需求径向基函数网络预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 周泰,王亚玲. 基于多因素分析的区域物流需求径向基函数网络预测[J]. 商业研究, 2009, 0(9) |
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| 作者姓名： | 周泰 王亚玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西南交通大学,物流学院,成都,610031
2. 西南交通大学,软件学院,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 对区域物流需求量进行合理、精确地预测,能为政府部门科学制定物流规划、合理配置物流资源提供决策支持和依据。在对影响区域物流需求的多种因素进行全面分析以及物流需求量指标合理选取的基础上,采用径向基函数神经网络构建区域物流需求量的非线性预测模型,并以四川省相关统计数据为基础,对区域物流需求量进行了预测,取得了满意的预测结果。研究表明:该预测模型较全面地反映了区域物流需求量的变化规律,预测精度较高,泛化能力强,预测结果具有较高的可信性。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域物流需求 多因素分析 径向基函数网络 预测 |
The Radial Basis Function Neural Network Forecast of Regional Logistics Demand Based on Multi-Factor Analysis |
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| ZHOU Tai,WANG Ya-ling. The Radial Basis Function Neural Network Forecast of Regional Logistics Demand Based on Multi-Factor Analysis[J]. Commercial Research, 2009, 0(9) |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Tai WANG Ya-ling |
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| Abstract: | Reasonable and accurate forecast of regional logistics demand can offer decision support and basis for government department to scientifically make regional logistics planning and rationally distribute logistics resources.On the basis of comprehensive analysis of the multi-factor which influence regional logistics demand and reasonable choice of indexes of regional logistics demand,we constructed a non-linear forecasting model of regional logistics demand by using radial basis function neural network,predicted the regional logistics demand of Sichuan province according to its relevant statistic data,and obtained satisfactory forecast results.Research showed that the forecasting model can reflect the change law of regional logistics demands all-roundly,with high forecast precision,strong generalization ability and high credibility. |
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| Keywords: | regional logistics demand multi-factor analysis radial basis function neural network forecast |
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