国际分工对产业结构演进的影响及其对我国的启示——基于新兴工业化国家跨国面板数据的经验分析

从需求角度探讨了国际分工与产业结构演变的关系,提出国际分工主要通过直接效应和间接效应,以及由此衍生的收入效应、关联效应和替代效应来影响一国产业结构变化的理论假说。采用20世纪80年代陆续进入工业化成熟期的15个新兴工业化国家的跨国面板数据进行了实证检验,发现这些新兴工业化国家在产业结构向服务经济转型的同时,制造业的比较优势和外贸依存度却出现了下降趋势,国内最终消费占比呈现上升趋势。其经济含义表明:新兴工业化国家如果过度强化在国际分工中的制造国地位,长期依靠商品贸易来拉动经济增长,可能阻碍产业结构由工业经济向服务经济的转型;而随着制造业比较优势的下降,如果减少对商品贸易的依赖,更多地依靠国内需求来发展经济,对于产业结构的转型将有正面的促进作用。以上结论对于我国经济结构的调整具有重要的借鉴意义。

Impact on Industrial Structure Evolution of International Division of Labor and Inspiration to China:Based on Empirical Analysis of Transnational Panel Data of Newly Industrializing Countries

This paper analyzes the relationship between the international division of labor and the evolution of industrial structure from the perspective of demand,and proposes a theoretical hypothesis that the international division of labor influences the change of a country’ s industrial structure through the direct effect and indirect effect,and the income effect,correlative effect and the crowding out effect resulting from that.The paper provides an empirical test with transnational panel data of fifteen newly industrializing countries that enter into the mature period of industrializing process during the 1980s,and the result is: these newly industrializing countries experience the industrial structure’ s transforming to service economy,and at the same time the comparative advantage in the manufacturing industry and the ratio of dependence on foreign trade drop,while the ratio of dependence on domestic final consumption rises.The economic implications are: if these countries reinforce the status of the manufacturing process in the international division of labor too much and mainly depend on trade in goods to promote economic growth for a long time,the industrial structure’ s transforming from industrial economy to service economy may be hindered;but if they reduce their dependence on the trade in goods and increase their dependence on domestic demand as the comparative advantages of the manufacturing sector drop,the result can be reverse.The conclusion of this paper will be meaningful for China’s economic transformation.