备战危机

全球经济2012、2013年未必会二次衰退。相比美国,欧洲2012年将会面临较大风险。如果意大利和法国的问题进一步恶化,可能会爆发银行系统危机。因为财政和资产负债表危机后所必须的结构调整方面的困难,美国经济可能在未来几年维持低增长,不排除2013年进入衰退的可能。现在市场对中国的关注也越来越多,包括金融系统风险等。即使没有二次衰退,中国未来两年的环境也是富有挑战的,需要开始备战危机。

Preparing for Crisis

The global economy may not necessarily face a double dip recession this year and in 2013.Theeuro-area economy will likely face more challenges than the US this year.Should the economicsituation in Italy and France continues to deteriorate,a banking crisis could be triggered.Since it isdifficult to make necessary adjustments in the wake of the fiscal and balance-sheet crisis,the USeconomy may continue to grow slowly in the coming several years,possibly dipping into recession in2013.The Chinese economy has been facing more challenges in the new global environment even if theworld economy could indeed avoid a double dip in the coming two years.It is time for China to getprepared for the worst scenario and take measures to ward off any systematic financial crisis.