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A Multi-Stage Model of Decision Bias: Implications for Expert Systems
Authors:Thomas J. Housel  Waymond Rodgers
Abstract:The study of the bias processes that affect decision making is crucial in designing expert systems. This study proposes a multi-stage model for decision biases which reconceptualizes cognitive styles and decision heuristics within a framework that borrows heavily from research by Posner and McLeod (1982), Tversky and Kahneman (1973) and Ramaprasad (1987). The framework is tested within the context-bound area of loan making so that the biasing effects of prior experience on decision making can be examined. The results are analyzed with a path-modeling technique (i.e. covariance structural modeling) that allows testing for indirect as well as direct effects. The results are discussed in terms of the implications for expert systems development
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