Agricultural productivity, trade, and industrialisation

Traditional development economics states that industrialisationmust be positively correlated with agricultural developmentas in the American and many European cases. However, some recentindustrialisation experiences suggests a negative link whichcan be supported by a simple Ricardian argument Yet this argumentis not consistent with the agricultural ‘leap forward’that often occurred before industrialisation took place. Here,we develop a model in which, for a closed economy, industrialisationfollows rising agricultural productivity. For a small open economy,multiple equilibria are possible and industrialisation tendsto be associated with low agricultural productivity, but istriggered by sudden changes in it.