石油储量价值评估方法及其参数分析

本文首先对我国石油储量管理体制进行评价,进而论述了矿业资产的概念和特点,文章着重探讨了国外流行的贴现现金流理论模型的数学拓展,首次引入成本递增假设,使价值评估模型能大规模地应用于储量单元的价值评估;拓展模型创立了组合指数贴现系数和成本递增贴现系数,并对拓展结果所涉及的开发参数进行了敏感性分析,最后,文章对贴现现金流模型的应用及其结果的合理性进行了说明和分析。

A Research on Evaluation Methods of Petroleum Reserve

Beginning with the evaluation of the system of China's traditional management of petroleum resources,the paper discusses the concept and characteristics of mining assets. It discourses upon mathematic developing of prevalent foreign discount-cash flow,and first introduces cost increasing hypothesis,which will impel value prediction model to be applied extensively to reserves value evaluation. Developing model founds assembled-index-discount coefficient and cost-increasing-discount coefficient. The sensitivity of the exploitation-parameter of developing result is analyzed, and finally the application and rationality of its result of discount-cash flow is expounded.