基于现金流模型的我国旅游业外汇风险暴露研究

汇率变动导致的国际市场需求变化会引起旅游业的外汇风险暴露。通过构建基于需求的经营性外汇风险暴露模型（经营性现金流模型）和旅游业加权汇率指数（TTWI），采用2005—2011年国内上市旅游公司的数据，对我国旅游公司的经营性现金流进行实证分析。研究发现，有很大比例旅游公司的经营性活动暴露于外汇风险之下，其外汇风险暴露形式呈现出非线性、非对称和滞后性的特征。旅游公司在管理外汇风险暴露时，可通过投资于外币资产或使用外币负债在总现金流上分散汇率风险。

Tourism Industry's Foreign Exchange Risk Exposure Based on Cash Flow Model

Basing on the cash flow model and tourism-weighted exchange rate index （TI＇WI）, using the data from 2005 to 2011 of domestic listed tourism companies, this paper empirically analyzes the foreign exchange risk exposure of Chinese travel company＇s operating cash flow. The result shows that there is a large percentage of the company＇s business activities exposed to foreign exchange risk, and their exposure to foreign exchange risk has charecteristics of non-linear, non-symmetrical and considerably lagged. Travel service companies can manage foreign exchange risk exposure by investing foreign exchange assets and obtaining foreign exchange liabilities, so as to disperse the foreign exchange risk of tatol cash flow.