金融危机背景下石油价格波动对我国经济影响实证分析

通过选取我国宏观经济数据中反映消费、投资、贸易、价格水平四方面22个经济指标数据,运用因子分析法提取主因子,之后采用VAR模型,分析我国石油价格波动对宏观经济产生的影响。结果表明:贸易对石油价格的变化最为敏感,前期的波动较大;石油价格上涨对消费存在逆向影响,随着价格上涨消费的变化达到低点后缓慢回升;石油价格上涨对物价水平和投资的影响相对不明显。

An Empirical Analysis of Fluctuations in Oil Prices Impact on China's Economy under the Influence of the Financial Crisis

This paper selects four aspects of consumption, investment, trade, price levels from China's macroeconomic data, using factor analysis method to extract the main factor. And then using VAR model analyzes the different impact of oil price fluctuations on the four aspects. The results show that, trade is most sensitive to changes in oil prices, and relatively large fluctuations in the early. The rise in oil prices is adverse impact on consumption; changes in prices consumption reached a low and slow recovery. Oil prices on the impact of the price level and investment are less significant.