世界经济不确定形势下人民币汇率分析

自今年3月份以来，随着在全球经济渐呈复苏态势之后，美元又重拾跌势，转而延续了国际金融危机前长期贬值趋势。受美元走势疲弱推动，人民币升值预期近日连连升温，人民币汇率走出了小幅波动向上攀升的态势。美元持续贬值将加剧人民币升值压力，并将对中国的出口、外汇储备、国际资本的流入、央行的货币政策与国内资产价格走势均产生显著影响。考虑到目前美国经济复苏乏力，短期内很难扭转巨额的财政和贸易赤字，美元在2009年内可能仍会保持疲软态势，但下跌的过程可能伴随着波动，到2010年下半年，美元有望相对走稳。为了保证出口部门的景气和就业，年内人民币重启升值进程的可能性是比较小的，人民币兑美元的升值通道将在明年年中重新开启，但升值步伐可能较为缓慢。

An Analysis on RMB Exchange Rate under Circumstances of Uncertain World Economy

After the recovery of world economy since March 2009,US dollar relapses to depreciate,turning the declining trend back to the period prior to international financial crises.Due to dollar's devaluation,RMB is expected to appreciate,and going north bit by bit recently.Continuous depreciation of the dollar is exerting pressure on RMB,as well as affecting Chinese exportation,foreign exchange reserve,international capital inflow,monetary policy by the Central Bank,and domestic assets prices. Thanks to weak recov...