农村产业融合对农业碳排放的影响：机制路径及空间溢出效应分析

目的 破解农业碳排放问题是全面推进农业绿色转型发展的关键举措,探索农村产业融合对农业碳排放的影响,有助于为推进农业可持续发展拓展新途径。方法 文章基于2008—2020年省级面板数据,通过构建中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型实证检验了农村产业融合对农业碳排放的影响机制和空间影响关系。结果 （1）农村产业融合对农业碳排放存在显著的“减碳效应”。（2）基于投入要素视角,农村劳动力外流、土地规模化经营和农业科技进步发挥了中介作用,即农村产业融合可以通过优化劳动力、土地、技术等要素间接实现“减碳效应”。（3）农村产业融合与农业碳排放均存在显著的空间集聚特征,且具有正向空间溢出效应。（4）农村产业融合通过空间溢出效应对邻近地区农业存在显著的“减碳效应”。结论 充分肯定农村产业融合对农业碳排放的重要作用,继续发挥好政策、资金和技术的保障作用,深化农村产业融合进程,助推低碳农业高质量发展。

EFFECTS OF RURAL INDUSTRIAL CONVERGENCE ON AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS: MECHANISM PATH AND SPATIAL SPILLOVER EFFECT ANALYSIS

Cracking the problem of agricultural carbon emissions is a key measure to comprehensively promote the green transformation of agricultural development. Exploring the impact of rural industry integration on agricultural carbon emissions is helpful to expand new ways to promote the sustainable development of agriculture. Based on the provincial panel data from 2008 to 2020, this paper empirically tested the mechanism path and spatial impact of rural industry integration on agricultural carbon emissions by constructing the intermediary effect model and the spatial Durbin model. The results were listed as follows. (1) Rural industrial integration had a significant "carbon reduction effect" on agricultural carbon emissions. (2) From the perspective of input factors, rural labor outflow, land scale management and agricultural science and technology progress played an intermediary role, that was, rural industrial integration could indirectly achieve "carbon reduction effect" by optimizing the labor, land, technology and other factors. (3) Both rural industrial integration and agricultural carbon emissions had significant spatial agglomeration characteristics and positive spatial spillover effect. (4) Under the spatial influence relationship, rural industrial integration had a significant "carbon reduction effect" on agriculture in neighboring areas through the spatial spillover effect. Based on this, we should fully affirm the role of rural industry integration, continue to give full play to the guarantee role of policies, funds and technologies, deepen the process of rural industry integration, and promote the high-quality development of low-carbon agriculture.