农业保险对农业碳生产率的影响研究

目的 探究农业保险能否实现农业经济发展与碳减排“双促进”，进而提升农业碳生产率。方法 文章基于2008—2020年中国30个省（市、区，未含香港、澳门、台湾省和西藏地区）的面板数据，构建双向固定效应模型和中介效应模型，实证检验农业保险对农业碳生产率的影响及作用机制。结果 （1）农业保险有利于提升农业碳生产率，即农业保险发展水平每提高1%，农业碳生产率平均提升0.049%。（2）从作用机制来看，农业保险通过促进农业产业集聚和农业技术进步，从而实现农业碳生产率的提升，中介效应占比分别为39.1%和24.5%。（3）进一步讨论发现，农业保险对农业碳生产率的影响存在农业产值占比的单一门槛效应，门槛值为0.012 5，当农业产值占比低于门槛值时，农业保险对农业碳生产率的作用不明显，而当农业产值占比超过门槛值时，农业保险会对农业碳生产率产生显著的促进作用。结论 政府应从强化政策支持，提高保障水平；实行差异化补贴，推动规模化生产；完善保险条款，探索创新品种等方面进一步强化农业保险的环境正外部性。

RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE ON AGRICULTURAL CARBON PRODUCTIVITY

This study aims to explore whether agricultural insurance can achieve dual promotion of agricultural economic development and carbon reduction, thereby improving agricultural carbon productivity. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces, cities or autonomous regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) in China from 2008 to 2020, a two-way fixed effect model and a mediation effect model were constructed to empirically test the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural carbon productivity and its mechanism. The results were listed as follows. (1) Agricultural insurance was conducive to improving agricultural carbon productivity, that was, with every 1% increasing in the development level of agricultural insurance, agricultural carbon productivity increased by 0.049% on average. (2) From the perspective of its mechanism, agricultural insurance improved agricultural carbon productivity by promoting agricultural industry agglomeration and agricultural technology progress, and the intermediary effect accounted for 39.1% and 24.5% respectively. (3) Further discussion found that there was a single threshold effect of the proportion of agricultural output value on the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural carbon productivity, the threshold value was 0.012 5. When the proportion of agricultural output value was lower than the threshold value, the role of agricultural insurance on agricultural carbon productivity was not obvious, while when the proportion of agricultural output value exceeded the threshold value, agricultural insurance would have a significant role in promoting agricultural carbon productivity. Therefore, to further strengthen the environmental positive externalities of agricultural insurance, the government should strengthen policy support to improve the level of security, implement differentiated subsidies to promote large-scale production, improve insurance clauses, and explore innovative varieties.