基本养老保险个人账户收支平衡风险评估及对策

当个人账户因空账运行而起不到实际积累作用和适度保障功能的时候,个人账户的潜在风险就将变成客观现实。本文运用养老保险个人账户收支平衡风险评估模型,基于两类情景假设对部分积累和完全积累模式下养老保险个人账户收支平衡及相关影响因素之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,在养老保险个人账户空账运行导致实际收益率趋于零,但记账利率不断提高的情况下,单凭记账利率提高无法从根本上解决问题,而只会使个人账户的空账情况愈加严重,从而使得政府对养老保险个人账户的债务承诺实际上处于不断累积放大的态势。未来亟待在做实个人账户的基础上,通过市场化投资提升实际收益率,通过延迟退休等措施确保较长积累周期。

Risk Assessment and Countermeasure of Income and Expenditure Balance in Individual Account of Basic Endowment Insurance

When the personal account can not play the role of actual accumulation and moderate guarantee because of the operation of empty account,the potential risk of personal account will become an objective reality.This paper uses the risk assessment model of pension insurance personal account balance of income and expenditure,based on two scenarios to analyze the relationship between the balance of income and expenditure of pension insurance personal account and the related influencing factors under the mode of partial accumulation and complete accumulation.The results show that when the real rate of return tends to zero,but the accounting interest rate tends to increase,the problem can not be solved fundamentally by raising the accounting interest rate alone,but it will only make the situation of personal accounts more serious,so that the government’s debt commitment to the personal accounts of old-age insurance is actually in the trend of increasing accumulation and amplification.In the future,it is urgent to improve the real rate of return through market-oriented investment on the basis of making real personal accounts,and to ensure a long accumulation cycle through measures such as delayed retirement.