全球经济失衡的调整趋势 ——基于美国中心的视角

本文对以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式进行了趋势性分析。尽管外部失衡呈现出周期性的调整，但这些调整过程也是围绕着美国的经济和利益中心而展开的。对于美国而言，它并不需要刻意对其逆差大小进行调整，而主要通过金融渠道的资本流动收益为其贸易逆差提供融资；其外部失衡的调整是贸易失衡对象的转换，而不是贸易余额的逆转。对于顺差方，外部失衡的调整意味着贸易条件的恶化和经济结构的调整，出口贸易地位将逐步被弱化和替代。以美国为中心的全球经济失衡模式将继续存在，除非美元崩溃和美国经济霸主地位丧失。

THE ADJUSTMENT TREND OF GLOBAL IMBALANCES——Based on the Pattern of U.S.Being the Center

The paper discussed the trend of global imbalances pattern of U.S. being the center. Despite the periodical adjustments of external imbalance, these adjustments were revolved around U.S.being the economic and benefits center. The trade deficits of U.S.were financed from earnings of capital flow through financial channels.The adjustment of external imbalance with U.S.was varying the trade partners but not reversion of trade balance. For the surplus countries, the adjustments of external imbalances implied the deterioration of trade terms and the adjustment of economic structure. The export trade position would be weakened and substituted by others. Therefore the global imbalances pattern of U.S. as the center would be persistent, only if the breakdown of U.S. dollar and the loss of U.S. economic hegemony.