人民币升值下中国外贸顺差趋势的原因分析——基于国内紧缩政策与世界经济不确定性

汇率改革以来,在人民币升值趋势下,由于目前国际货币体系构成的复杂性、国际产业转移形成的"迁移效应"和世界市场对中国产品需求大量增加等深层次根源,导致了中国巨额贸易顺差。但由于世界经济放缓、人民币汇率和国内政策调控等因素,认为2008年外贸继续保持自2002年以来连续六年22%以上增势的可能性较小,2008全年外贸顺差增速可能放缓。

The Cause Analysis on the Chinese Foreign Trade Surplus Trend under the RMB Appreciation: Based on the Domestic Deflation Policy and the Uncertainty of World Economy

Since the reform of exchange rate,under the trend of RMB appreciation,because of the complexity of present international monetary system,"transfer effect" formed from the transfer of international industries and increase greatly of the world market to Chinese products and other deep roots,the overcoming great favorable trade balance was caused.But because of the slowing down of world economy,the regulation of RMB exchange rate and domestic policy and etc.,the paper thought that the likelihood that foreign trade in 2008 held the trend of increasing by over 22% for six years since 2002 was small and the whole year's rate of increase of foreign trade may be slowed down in 2008.