中欧班列口岸站通关风险分析------基于FTA-BN模型

为有效提升中欧班列运行效率,更好发挥其在“一带一路”倡议下的重要作用,构建了FTA-BN模型针对中欧班列通关时间风险开展分析评估。针对问题的特点,利用故障树映射及Expectations Maximization算法等工具获取了完善的贝叶斯网络结构及节点参数。以此为基础对中欧班列通关时间风险进行多方面的推理分析,最终确定报关、审单等相关风险事件为通关效率的关键影响环节,为中欧班列运营管理工作提供了可靠的基础手段。

Risk assessment for Clearance in Port Station of CR Express based on FTA-BN Model

In order to improve the operation efficiency of CR Express and play its important role under the "One Belt And One Road" initiative, the FTA-BN model is used to analyze and evaluate the clearance time risk of CR Express. First, the structure of Bayesian network was formed by fault tree model mapping and the probability of initial conditions is obtained. The EM algorithm is used for parameters learning based on actual data. Then the complete Bayesian network evaluation model was formed by updating parameters of nodes. Finally, the clearance time risk of CR express was analyzed in various aspects, and relevant risk events including customs declaration and order review are determined as the key influencing links for clearance efficiency. The paper also provides a reliable means for risk assessment of CR Express.