金融学中的技术分析理论基础研究综述

虽然技术分析在金融实业界得到了广泛的关注和应用,但是金融学术界却较少关注它,原因在于技术分析认为价格可以预测,而这与有效市场假说是背道而驰的。然而,金融学者通过对新古典金融理论的修正,建立了基于信息不对称的噪音理性预期模型和基于行为金融学的正反馈模型,为技术分析提供了理论支持。此外,其他理论模型从市场摩擦、羊群效应、市场影响力等角度出发,也证明了技术分析的有效性。

Comment on finance's technology analysis theory base research

Although technical analysis is widely used in the financial industry, however, in the academic world it receives less attention. The reason lies in that technical analysis assumes prices can be predicted, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis. Nevertheless, financial economists modify the neoclassic financial theory by establishing noisy rational expectations models based on information asymmetry and positive feedback models based on behavioral finance, and provide theoretical foundation for technical analysis. In addition, other theoretical models considering market frictions, herding behavior and market power also demonstrate that technical analysis is profitable.