制造业出口贸易就业效应及其门限特征——以江苏为例

利用面板数据模型分析江苏制造业内各细分行业出口贸易对行业内就业的影响,并得出15个细分行业的出口贸易对相应行业内就业存在着显著正向刺激效应,并且不同行业的出口贸易就业效应存在着一定的差异性。利用门限回归模型验证发现江苏制造业出口贸易就业效应在企业单位数、资产、利润总额、企业亏损面、出口依存度这五个行业指标上存在着门限效应。最后,根据结论对江苏就业提出了一些政策建议。

Employment Effect and Threshold Feature of Manufacture Export Trade--Case Study of Jiangsu Province

The paper analyzed the effect of export trade of subdivided industries in manufacture in Jiangsu Province on the employment with the panel data model. It found that export trade of fifteen subdivided industries had obvious positive effect on employment and there existed different employment effects among subdivided industries. With the threshold regressive model, it also found that there existed threshold effect in such five indexes as the number of enterprises, assets, total profit, percentage of lossmaking enterprises and dependence on export. Finally, it put forward some sugges- tions about the employment in Jiangsu Province.