选择偏差、比较优势与教育的异质性回报∶基于中国微观数据的实证研究

本文根据 2 0 0 0年中国的微观数据 ,运用现代微观计量经济学的分析方法 ,在考虑异质性和选择偏差的基础上 ,估计了 2 0世纪末中国的教育回报。研究结果表明 :与受教育水平相关的收益在人们中间存在显著的异质性 ;在当今中国的劳动力市场上存在一种重要的实证现象 ,即人们根据比较优势原理对教育水平进行选择。传统的普通最小二乘法以及工具变量法都难以对这种选择做出合理的估计 ,我们的分析框架弥补了上述两种方法的缺陷。 2 0 0 0年中国 6个省区城镇青年大学教育的平均回报率为 43 % (年均近 1 1 % )。中国在经历二十多年的市场经济改革后 ,较之 80年代及 90年代初期 ,教育的平均回报有了显著提高 ,中国的教育和劳动力市场已经开始发挥重要作用。

Heterogeneity,Selection Bias and the Return to Education:A Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Micro-Data

This paper uses newly available Chinese micro data to estimate the return to college education for late 20th century China when allowing for heterogeneous returns among individuals selecting into schooling based on these differences. We use modern micro-econometric methods to identify the parameters of interest. We demonstrate that heterogeneity among people in returns to schooling is substantial. People sort into schooling on the basis of the principle of comparative advantage, which we document to be an empirically important phenomenon in modern Chinese labor markets. Standard least squares or instrumental variable methods do not properly account for this sorting. Using new methods that do, we estimate the effect on earnings of sending a randomly selected person to college is a 43% increase in lifetime earnings (nearly 11% annually) in 2000 for young people in urban areas of six provinces of China. Our evidence, and simple least squares evidence, suggests that after 20-plus years of economic reform with market orientation, the return to education has increased substantially in China, compared to the returns measured in the 1980's and the early 1990's.