从历史角度看世界经济失衡:文献综述

本文从历史的角度对世界经济失衡做出综述,通过当今世界经济失衡与历史上五次失衡的纵向对比,以及当今美国经济失衡与近三十年世界各国失衡的横向对比,找出世界经济失衡的一般规律。对于当今失衡形成了两种观点:崩溃论、调整论。笔者认为,当今失衡能否维持取决于美国能否保持快速的经济增长。如果美国经济出现下滑、世界各国不能协调解决失衡,必然会引起世界经济动荡,在危机来临之前需要中国做好经济结构的调整。

Historical Perspective On Global Imbalances: Literature Review

This paper makes a summary of the global imbalance from a historical perspective.Comparing present imbalance with the past five times and comparing the US deficit with other countries' in the history,we want to find the rule of world imbalance.On the argument of the future of the imbalance,there are two debating attitudes:the crash loading and the smooth loading.I think the existence of the imbalance relies on whether the US keeps growing faster.If the US coming economy was stagnant and the world couldn't reconcile with each other,there will be economic chaos.China had better to restructure in order to deal with the imbalance.