去产能背景下跨部门产业政策与技术创新

基于政策效果的部际传导视角，建立包含上游能源部门、中游电力部门和下游生产部门的多部门一般均衡模型，对高耗能产业生产函数以施加外生冲击方式刻画中国2015年实施的去产能政策，通过校准模型分析核心内生变量在政策冲击时期相较于平衡增长路径时期的变化。结果显示：①以“短期阵痛”为代价的去产能政策能够实现提振过剩产业产品价格的基础政策目标；②在能源部门技术创新的内生设定下，去产能政策能够提高绿色能源占能源使用总量的比重，实现绿色结构效应；③去产能政策能够降低绿色能源相对价格，实现绿色成本效应。进一步地，引入价格政策进行政策情景模拟，比较实现同一减排目标时内生技术模型和外生技术模型的政策成本，发现内生技术设定能够以更低税率和更小福利损失实现减排目标。研究结论表明，内生的技术创新是完善去产能政策传导、降低政策成本的关键环节，推动了下游过剩产业的市场提振和上游能源部门的绿色转型，为供给侧改革研究提供了产业政策与技术创新互动的新视角。

Research on the Impact of Industrial Policy on Technological Innovation from the Perspective of China′s Capacity Reduction

Based on the inter-sector transmission perspective of policy effect, a multi-sector general equilibrium model including the upstream energy sector, the midstream power sector and the downstream production sector is established to depict China's capacity reduction policy implemented in 2015 in the way of exogenous impact on the production function of high energy-consuming industries. Through the calibration model, the core endogenous variables are analyzed in the period of policy impact compared with the balanced growth path changes in the path period. The results show that: first, the policy of capacity reduction at the cost of "short-term pain" can achieve the primary policy goal of boosting the price of excess industrial products; second, under the endogenous setting of technological innovation in the energy sector, the policy of capacity reduction can increase the proportion of green energy in the total energy use and achieve the "green structure effect"; third, the policy of capacity reduction can reduce the green energy to achieve green cost-effectively. Furthermore, price policy is introduced to simulate the policy scenario, and the policy cost of the endogenous technology model and exogenous technology model is compared to achieve the same emission reduction goal. It is found that endogenous technology can acquire the emission reduction goal with a lower tax rate and less welfare loss. The conclusion shows that endogenous technological innovation is the crucial link to improve the transmission of capacity reduction policy and reduce the cost of the policy. It promotes the market boost of downstream surplus Industries and the green transformation of the upstream energy sector. It provides a new perspective of the interaction between industrial policy and technological innovation for supply-side reform research.