Cellular telephones in the Israeli market: the demand,the choice of provider and potential revenues

This study presents the methodology, the estimates and a scenario for forecasting the demand for cellular telephones and their use in Israel. The analysis was based on the integration of three sub-models. The estimate of the consumer's decision on whether to purchase a cellular telephone and what type was obtained by using a discrete choice model of the multinomial logit type. The total number of cellular telephone purchases to be made in Israel during the years 1998–2008 was estimated using a logistic growth model employing aggregate data over time. The anticipated demand for airtime was based on findings of a survey carried out on a national sample, and on actual usage data on the various consumers during the years prior to the survey. The research shows the substantial economic potential of Israel's cellular telephone market.