财税政策下的产业结构升级非线性效应研究

本文选取2000~2012年中国31个省域面板数据,以政府财政收支、固定资产投资、人力资本水平、技术进步水平等作为解释变量构建多因素面板平滑转换(PSTR)模型,研究并检验了我国财税政策对产业结构升级的非线性效应。实证结果表明,在经济发展水平与居民消费水平阀值转换条件下,我国财税政策与产业结构升级之间存在着平滑转换机制效应,即财政收支对产业结构升级的影响呈现出阀值转换特征;在参数异质性假设条件下,实证结果揭示出财税政策在影响我国省域产业结构升级上具有非均衡特征。

Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policies on the Upgrading of Industrial Structure

This paper selects China＇s 31 provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012 and some factors affecting the upgra- ding of industrial structure such as government fiscal balance investment in fixed assets, human capital level, technological pro- gress level and so on as explanatory variables to construct muhi-factor panel smooth transition regression model （PSTR） to re- search the nonlinear effects of fiscal policies on the upgrading of industrial structure. The empirical results show that under the condition of the transition of threshold of economic development level and consumption level, there is a smooth transition mechanism between fiscal policies and the upgrading of industrial structure, namely the effects of fiscal balance on the upgra- ding of industrial structure having threshold conversion feature. Under the assumption of parameters heterogeneity, the empiri- cal results show that fiscal policies have non-equilibrium characteristics on affecting China＇s provincial upgrading of industrial structure.